Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Gasoline Will Be $6 per Gallon by 2012

I've been prepping for over a year now and have quite a few things squared away, as it were. The impass that I'm coming to now is: where do we go from here?

In a prior post, I mentioned my redundancy plan. We have most major bases covered. Of course, you could never have too much of anything so we'll continue to stock up on food and ammo.

I'm just wondering what we'll do when gas hits $6 a gallon. I'm not sure it will be viable to drive the kids to school.

We've found a terrific school that we've used for about four years now. We've gotten to know the teachers and the curriculum is successful. The problem is going to be that the school is 16 miles one way, from our house.

If we get 10 mpg in our Suburban, and I'm UNDERestimating, then that's three gallons per day for a round trip. At $5 per gallon, we're talking $15/day just to take two of our six girls to school. Five days a week means $75/week or $300/month just to go to school. $6/gal gas would cost $360 per month. There is no bus system to our neighborhood.

Theoretically, if I buy an older Toyota that gets an estimated 30mpg the math would change. It would then only take ONE gallon of gas to get the girls to school and back, as opposed to three gallons. At $5/gal, that saves me $10/day, $50/week, $200/month (using 4 weeks in a month for simplification).

Most decent Toyotas/Hondas that I've seen on CraigsList are selling for around $1500-$2500. The midpoint being $2000, the breakeven point for me would be at 10 months. Saving $200 a month in gas for 10 months would equal the $2000 it cost to buy the economical car.

I wish I had some historical data that could help me predict how long the gas prices will skyrocket before landing back into reasonable levels.

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